Data that smart phones represented 45% of all new U.S. mobile device purchases in November coupled with the fact that smart phone users now make up 31% of the total U.S. mobile subscriber segment got me thinking – did femtocells just lose their relevance for capacity augment? Let’s revisit the business proposition for femtocells – smart phones generate a lot of data at home/office/airport/doctor visit/shopping mall yada yada …Femtocells can offload the data away from the macro network, went the reasoning. But does this argument hold if every smart phone being shipped came with WiFi? According to a report from ABI Research, it will be difficult to buy a new smart phone that does not have built-in WiFi in the next few years. Currently, about half the smart phones sold have WiFi. By 2014, the forecast goes, about 90 percent of smart phones will have built-in WiFi.
One of the primary drivers behind the whole femtocell business proposition was that very few 3G phones supported WiFi – reasons ranged from battery life issues to operators’ concern about giving up control of the user to a WiFi/fixed network. Increasingly, mobile operators are willing to give up control as well. Heavy traffic loads on overburdened 3G networks are forcing the operators to actually encourage their customers to use WiFi hotspots. Case in point – AT&T is encouraging all its iPhone subscribers to access its more than 20,000 Wi-Fi hot spots for free.
The hope is that the company can offload some of the traffic onto the WiFi network by encouraging subscribers to use WiFi for data-intensive activities when they’re in range of a hot spot. In this age of data-centric multimedia phones, carriers have embraced WiFi technology as a way to offload traffic from licensed spectrum and improve the consumer experience. I know my iPhone 4 switches to my home and work WiFi networks automatically when I am in range – it also provides instant updates when I am traveling about new WiFi networks that I can sign onto.
While most cell phones today use WiFi technology based on older standards, the newer specification called 802.11n is gaining traction. And by 2012 ABI says it will become the predominant WiFi technology used in mobile handsets. The benefit of using 802.11n is that it offers up to five times the download speed of 802.11g. The newer 802.11n also doubles the range of a Wi-Fi hot spot from about 100 meters to about 200 meters. It also has a few other features built into the specification that will improve the experience for mobile users. For example, since data transmissions are more efficient with 802.11n, battery life lasts longer than with other forms of 802.11 technology.
To summarize, all the principal data guzzlers – smart phones, tablets, laptops – will support WiFi – the question then is do we really need a femtocell for data?
Last year, I wrote an entry which looked at AdMob’s monthly Mobile Metrics report and concluded that smart phone platforms from Nokia, RIM and Windows Mobile had a higher share of ads served compared to that of Apple’s iPhone. I pointed out that this was not consistent with the browsing market share numbers reported by Net Applications. Well, iPhone has addressed that discrepancy to leave absolutely no doubt whatsover! Just take a look at the March 2009 report from AdMob (left). I have included the March 2008 report (right) as well for easy comparison.
The iPhone and iPod Touch together have a 22% share (more than the rest of the 18 platforms listed in the table) of the 7.65B ad requests made to AdMob – the distant third is the Motorola RAZR platform with a 2.7% share. Contrast this with March 2008 when the RAZR platform had a 5.6% share of ~2.86B ad requests. It is clear that the phenomenal success of Apple’s AppStore has a lot to do with the dominance of the Apple platforms. In fact, AdMob reports that applications have had a big impact on the growth of mobile data usage. According to AdMob, in March 2009, more than half of the total number of ad requests for the iPhone came from applications. It is clear that applications (especially the free variety) provide a tremendous opportunity to drive mobile advertising and will benefit ad networks such as AdMob.
Conventional wisdom is that iPhone users are a gadget-loving, tech-savvy and well-off bunch. In fact, results from a quantitative study of US 2G iPhone US users conducted by Rubicon in March 2008 revealed that the former have a median annual household income of $67,000 which is roughly 40% greater than the US median. So when comScore reported that the fastest growth in 3G iPhone sales in the US over the summer months came from households that earn less than the median income, it got my attention. As the attached table shows, ownership of the 3G iPhone rose 48% from June 1 to the end of August among households earning between $25,000 and $50,000 a year, compared to 21% overall. Mobile-browser use grew 4.9% among lower-income consumers, versus 2.7% overall, and their mobile music-listening rose 4.7%, compared to an overall decline of 0.3%. In fact, the income segment that shows the next highest growth (46%) in ownership is the $50,000 to $75,000 income category – a segment that is not too far off from the median income.
What gives? Continue reading